Double-edged offensive in Somalia increases Shebab threat in East Africa
ADDIS ABABA (AFP) - The United Nations warned Monday of an increased threat of attacks from Somalia’s Al-Qaeda-linked Shebab as a major offensive launched against them this month gathers pace.
“Coinciding with the offensive and even ahead of it, Al-Shebab have become more active,” UN envoy to Somalia, Nicholas Kay, said.
“They feel threatened and endangered, and so they have carried out significantly more terrorist attacks in Mogadishu in the last couple of months.”
UN-mandated African Union troops have been battling Shebab militants in Somalia since 2007, but earlier this month launched a fresh offensive, fighting alongside Somali government forces.
Kay said the operation is pushing the rebels out of key bases, which could prompt them to stage attacks in Mogadishu, as well as other countries in the region such as Uganda and Kenya.
Security sources report some Shebab members are fleeing to mountains in northern Somalia’s Puntland region, but some foreign fighters may seek to cross to Yemen, or flee southwards into neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya.
“They’re fleeing into the bigger cities, there are more of them entering Mogadishu,” Kay added.
“Some of them are looking to flee perhaps the country and are heading to the remoter corners,” he said, speaking after an AU peace and Security Council meeting in the Ethiopian capital.
Shebab gunmen have largely fled ahead of the AU advance, only to later stage guerrilla attacks.
But the Islamists have also vowed to retaliate against the troop-contributing nations, with soldiers in the 21,000-strong force coming from Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sierra Leone and Uganda.
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Double-edged offensive in Somalia increases Shebab threat in East Africa – http://t.co/E2pPEpL1NZ #Somalia
SecurityThe answers are sipmle, the implementation is the problem. On the issue of security it boils down to money, just as one would assume. Looking at the evolution of both pirate organizations and militant Islamist groups in Somalia, both started out as fillers of a societal vacuum. Piracy followed earnest efforts by maritimers in Somalia to protect their coastline. Then they quickly realized that they could make much more money from ransoms than from issuing fishing licenses and trespassing fines (which was futile since there wasn’t even an infrastructure to do so). Militant groups arose to bring about a semblance of a legal system; however, as with any place suffering from anarchy, those with the greatest ambitions as well as the largest guns hijacked these efforts and redirected them for their own gains.Strengthen the Somali armed forces both land and navy by offering (as well as monitoring) the pay and training of a functional coast-guard and military. I believe you will find many pirates and Jihadis switching occupations, the ones left are the criminals.Offering competitive pay and training for the Somali armed forces has a two-fold effect. It drains the recruiting pool of young men and women who would otherwise fall prey to militancy, extremism and piracy. It also enables the development of the rule of law as it provides the means to enforce the law which is almost non-existent today. Needless to say this will require incredible oversight and total third-party control of the money as very few members of Somalia’s current government can be trusted with little more than their own salary. Also to DE-legitimize the mission statement of Islamist groups the Somali government must adopt a correctly interpreted version of Shariah Law into the legal system. Most Somalis support this idea, to resist would only fuel Islamist justifications to continue an armed struggle. The key to taking the wind out of their sails also lies in the development of a domestic armed force rather than relying on neighbouring armed forces which are seen as invaders and only adds more fuel to the fire. Somalis are torn because as much as they may dislike Al-Shabaab, they dislike (perceived Christian) Ethiopian and Kenyan troops on Somali soil even more.So in recap, replace AMISOM troops in a facilitated transition period by redirecting funding to the Somali armed forces and Coast Guard, adopt a sharia based judicial and legal system, and for the love of god hold on to the money and never let it get into the hands of those in power, because if they aren’t corrupt now, several million dollars will surely do the trick.PoliticsIt is increasingly clear (if not blaringly apparent) that a constituency based system is the way forward. The assumption by some states that they can somehow achieve sovereignty while denying groups within these very regions of the same option is just illogical, if not unjust. With regards to south Somalia a decentralized constituency based solution is preferable because it allows for a systematic bottom-up approach with each area self-determining their route for stability as well as electing their representatives. It allows those who can work together to work together, and those who can’t to find somewhere or someone they can. However this is a difficult proposition since Somalia’s clans are not neatly compartmentalized into set areas and are and in some cases living side by side or completely interspersed in some regions. As you can discern it clearly is a clan based constituency that I believe will eventually take precedent since even those denouncing a clan based system will quickly refer to seeking guidance from their “elders” which is simply a watered down title of clan-leader. Nevertheless it will ultimately be a discussion discerning between major clan lines and which of those can work together. A federal system would encourage each group that ascends to some level of power in their area to also demand statehood, resulting in city-states which would then fracture into neighbourhood states and so on. Anyhow I’m no political expert but whatever system would allow an extremely fractured population to work together cohesively would be beneficial. I think Britain has some clues on how to fix this.